Wednesday update

Quick update, will probably be back here later tonight.

China econ data being released in 10mins (10pm EST)… should be significant for risk FX crosses, particularly those dependent on Chinese growth (AUD/USD I’m looking at you).

Retail sales came marginally below consensus while INTC blows up but earnings gap is faded heavily (following AA’s and CSX’s suit). What was thought to be THE catalyst for equity this week turned out to result in surprisingly low vol.

JPM numbers tomorrow should move markets. With rising hedgie redemptions, declining hedgie margin and trading volume, spiking capital market vol, and high intramarket corrs, principal & agency trading revs should come in with big declines and that will hurt fin EPSs. My guess is below consensus + sell the news.

S&P testing resistance at 50DMA and right below 200DMA (SPY at 50/200DMA cross). After seven sessions of rallying on no volume, bear market resumption could be upon us.

10yr yields retraced to the 310-315bps level I’d been harping about and sold off today back to 305bps. Suggests risk will be sold from here and the weak bounce in yields from cycle lows implies equity is overvalued and remains in fundamental downtrend. Moving average resistance will be key here.

Be back later.

-Naufal

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One Response to Wednesday update

  1. Matt says:

    Hey, wondering your opinion on the recent rally with the Euro. Think it is getting time to short it?

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